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【FXPLUS墨尔本金融学院】澳储行利率决议众望所归:维持基准利率2%不变

来源: 时间:2015-12-01 16:42:54 点击:

文/FXPLUS墨尔本金融学院教研组

澳洲东部时间下午230。澳储行宣布利率决议,决定维持2%的利率不变,符合市场预期。同时发布利率决议声明。利率决议之后,澳元兑美元小幅走高。

 

澳储行利率决议声明

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent.

The global economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with some softening in conditions in the Asian region, continuing US growth and a recovery in Europe. Key commodity prices are much lower than a year ago, reflecting increased supply, including from Australia, as well as weaker demand. Australia's terms of trade are falling.

The Federal Reserve is expected to start increasing its policy rate over the period ahead, but some other major central banks are continuing to ease monetary policy. Volatility in financial markets has abated somewhat for the moment. While credit costs for some emerging market countries remain higher than a year ago, global financial conditions overall remain very accommodative.

In Australia, the available information suggests that moderate expansion in the economy continues in the face of a large decline in capital spending in the mining sector. While GDP growth has been somewhat below longer-term averages for some time, business surveys suggest a gradual improvement in conditions in non-mining sectors over the past year. This has been accompanied by stronger growth in employment and a steady rate of unemployment. (尽管GDP的增长低于长期水平,但是商业调查显示,非矿业板块在逐步复苏。反映在就业的强劲增长和稳定的失业率上面。)

Inflation is low and should remain so, with the economy likely to have a degree of spare capacity for some time yet. Inflation is forecast to be consistent with the target over the next one to two years. (在接下来的1-2年当中,通胀数据预期会与目标保持一致。)

In such circumstances, monetary policy needs to be accommodative(现在的货币政策是合适的). Low interest rates are acting to support borrowing and spending(低利率正在帮助借贷和花费). While the recent changes to some lending rates for housing will reduce this support slightly, overall conditions are still quite accommodative. Credit growth has increased a little over recent months, with credit provided by intermediaries to businesses picking up. Growth in lending to investors in the housing market has eased. Supervisory measures are helping to contain risks that may arise from the housing market.

The pace of growth in dwelling prices has moderated in Melbourne and Sydney over recent months and has remained mostly subdued in other cities. In other asset markets, prices for commercial property have been supported by lower long-term interest rates, while equity prices have moved in parallel with developments in global markets. The Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices.

At today's meeting the Board again judged that the prospects for an improvement in economic conditions had firmed a little over recent months and that leaving the cash rate unchanged was appropriate(在最近的几个月当中,经济已经在逐步企稳,现在保持利率不变是合适的). Members also observed that the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing of policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand. The Board will continue to assess the outlook, and hence whether the current stance of policy will most effectively foster sustainable growth and inflation consistent with the target.

 

在澳储行的利率决议声明当中,我们可以看到,澳联储对于澳洲当前的经济是持乐观的态度,澳洲的经济正在逐步的复苏。尽管GDP的增长低于长期水平,但是商业调查显示,非矿业板块在逐步复苏。反映在就业的强劲增长和稳定的失业率上面。新增就业人数大多为零售业和旅游业,这也就表明澳洲经济转型初见成效。通胀数据处于低位,并且将会持续在低位运行。在接下来的1-2年当中,通胀数据预期会与目标保持一致。

 

澳大利亚失业率 来源:Trading Economics

澳大利亚GDP年增长率 来源:Trading Economics

 

澳大利亚CPI 来源:Trading Economics

 

从技术面来看,澳元兑美元中短期继续走强,下方的支撑位是在0.7160左右。今天开盘之后,澳元出现了进60点的大幅上涨。尽管今天早上11:30公布的澳洲第三季度经常帐数据为-181亿澳元,不及预期的-165亿澳元,但是市场对于澳储行的利率决议的结果的预期基本一致。澳元开盘后大幅上涨,走势已经吸收大部分对于利率决议的预期,而在利率决议公布之后仅小幅上涨。

澳元兑美元四小时图

受到澳元走强的影响,澳元兑人民币快速上涨,突破了前期的阻力位4.6730。目前,澳元兑人民币依然保持中短期的上涨趋势,支撑位在4.5950附近。

澳元兑人民币四小时图

 

 

 

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